The flood insurance program in the US is managed by Federal Emergency Management Agency through the National Flood Insurance Program. In this article, we review the claims filed during the period 1970 – 2019, and examine how the claims payments can be modeled. We look at the claims both at a global level and at an individual event level. We suggest an approach to model the payout coverage ratio and show that the log-normal distribution provides a reasonable option to model the payments between 0% and 100% of the total policy coverage levels.
Prediction is difficult, especially about the future!